"North and South Korea Exchange Fire, Killing Two"

From the NY Times:

SEOUL, South Korea — North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire on Tuesday after dozens of shells fired from the North struck a South Korean island near the countries’ disputed maritime border, South Korean military officials said. Two South Korean soldiers were killed, 15 were wounded and three civilians were injured, said Kiyheon Kwon, an official at the Defense Ministry.

More information from the Korean newspaper Joong Ang Daily, the Economist. Also useful: a timeline from the NYT.

My thoughts? Too early to say for sure, but as some of the newspapers have noted, North Korea has historically acted aggressively when it wants to come back to the bargaining table and extract concessions from the international community. Seoul is of course posturing angrily, but has a lot to lose if the conflict escalates.

This also may relate to the transfer of power in progress in Pyeongyang, from Kim Jong Il to his youngest son, Kim Jong Un. Some observers have noted that a show of military strength from the North may be intended to shore up Jong Un's power in North Korea, though I'm unsure how this would work.

Also worth noting: (1) The island affected was Yeonpyeong, which is numbered 3 on the map below. As you can see, the island is fairly close to Incheon Airport, Seoul's major international transportation hub.

(2) Due to South Korea's conscription policy, military fatalities are likely to be conscripted young men rather than volunteer soldiers.

I'll keep you updated if there is more news.