Analysis... and China

From the NY Times "Room for Debate":

The most compelling explanation for Tuesday’s shelling is that it is part of an ongoing series of provocations that are uniquely intra-Korean in nature. Tensions on the peninsula have risen in recent months with clashes on the D.M.Z., and ongoing disputes surrounding the Northern Limit Line which demarcates the West Sea boundary, which North Korea does not recognize.

Moreover, after a decade in which the South Korean government sent food and cash support to the North, President Lee Myung Bok has instead severely curtailed South Korean aid. Accordingly, North Korea’s approach to Seoul over the past year has vacillated between threats, inducements and outright provocations, of which the attack on Yeonjeong Island is just the latest and perhaps most dangerous manifestation.

Can this situation be handled diplomatically? The focus of our diplomatic efforts should be on China.

In recent months, China made a clear decision to double down on its bet that it could moderate North Korean behavior through more overt support of the regime in Pyongyang. While this approach appeared to bear fruit since North Korea has not recently tested long-range missiles, and did not disrupt the G-20 meetings in Seoul, the series of actions taken by North Korea over the last week have exposed China’s impotence in influencing North Korean behavior.

The U.S. and South Korea will need to make a strong case to China that its support for Pyongyang has enabled North Korea behavior. For its part, China will need to shape North Korean expectations about its obtaining recognition as a nuclear power, and the consequences of future provocations.