WWCD?

Hello again - sorry for the "radio silence". Here's an update on the North-South tension as I see it. Most of this will be links to helpful and informative news articles which provide much better analysis than I can.

First, the newsy updates: not much tangible has happened since last Thursday. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited China and South Korea and tried some diplomacy, the South announced small punitive actions and did some military posturing, and the North cut off all (well, most) contact and did its own military posturing.

What does this all mean?

Well, first it is helpful to put this in a historical perspective: things like this have been happening for years, though this is the largest such incident recently. Though there is some tension here, life mostly just goes on. One of the teachers who has worked in Korea for two or three years isn't really even following the story, so perhaps the populace is desensitized to flare-ups and threats.

Second, it is generally agreed that South Korea, the U.S. and other allies have pretty much reached the limits of how much they can affect North Korea: once you take away all trade and all contact, there's not much you can do short of war. It's also fairly sure that the South and its allies don't want a conflict. Why? Short answer (to quote something I read): the price would be Seoul. Long answer: this analysis of U.S. military options in the region.

Now, as weird and despicable as the regime of Kim Jong-il is, I don't buy that he's crazy and ready to sacrifice for war. No, he's a sane self-interested dictator, and he and his father have been pretty good at keeping themselves in power for 50 or so years. Pyeongyang knows that they would ultimately lose a war, so it's in their best interests to be just threatening enough to prevent one, and just unpredictable enough to make their threats real.

The key player that I haven't mentioned yet is China, which shares North Korea's northern border and is its primary "ally". China has a vested interest here:

China’s priority in its relations with North Korea is stability, since the collapse of the North could result in a flood of refugees into China. China is also wary that an abrupt change of regime would improve chances for unification with the South and thus enhance U.S. military power in the region. - NY Times Op-Ed

China's policy has been predominantly to prop up the regime, but under diplomatic pressure and with the evidence pretty clear, it may be changing its tune. The short-term result will likely be a fairly toothless U.N. resolution announcing an international denunciation or possibly more economic sanctions.

Ultimately, even China's mild support for international pressure won't do much unless they get serious about pressuring the regime, which for the reasons quoted above they probably won't do. So while it is a bit tense, my analysis is that it's a low point in relations, but not the start of a hot war.